Week 4: Regression and Model Evaluation
Dates: Feb 2-6 · Reading: Handout 4: Regression and Model Metrics
Learning Objectives
- Explain regression as predicting a number instead of a category
- Read a confusion matrix without fear
- Define false positives and false negatives in a security context
- Argue why accuracy alone can be misleading
Monday Session
Regression intuition: predicting risk scores, expected losses, or time to patch. Classification versus regression with business examples. Demo: a simple model that scores how risky a login attempt looks.
Wednesday Session
Model evaluation for decision makers: accuracy, the confusion matrix, false positives versus false negatives. The analyst fatigue problem. Trade-offs every security manager must understand. Exam 1 review.
Lab
Lab 4: Judging a Phishing URL Detector. Compute accuracy, build a confusion matrix, count false alarms versus missed attacks, and adjust the alert threshold.
Quiz / This Week
Quiz 4. Regression versus classification; confusion matrix; false positive trade-offs.